2020 Coronavirus

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This topic contains 58 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of BenRayner BenRayner 4 hours, 21 minutes ago.

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  • #19361
    Profile photo of urbanhunter
    urbanhunter
    Participant

    As of March 1, 2020: Since the first cases of the Coronavirus were reported in December 2019, at least 2,800 people have died and close to 85,000 have been infected worldwide. Most of the cases, however, are in mainland China.

    This indicates that to date the mortality rate (% of infected people who die) is 3%. Due to the high quality of the U.S. healthcare system we may expect (hope for) lower rates here.

    According to the World Health Organization there are now 54 countries with confirmed cases of the virus. (it now meets the minimum definition of a pandemic)

    The U.S. was one of the first countries to close their borders to travelers from areas with significant infection rates, but because the disease appears to be contagious before obvious symptoms are displayed there is little chance of complete containment. But closing the borders has given us some time to prepare….

    According to Health Officials in Washington State:
    “The infection will increase over time. We know we can’t stop it. It’s here and it’s going to be here with us in the U.S. for quite a while. But we can reduce our risks,” he added. “Don’t panic, get prepared.”

    As preppers we should discuss different approaches to prepping for the virus as it impacts us over the next 2 years.

    As this event expands we should expected shortages of directly linked medical supplies, so what alternative are there?

    #19363
    Profile photo of amish heart
    amish heart
    Participant

    I worry about the lack of pharmaceuticals. Also worry about the vaccination when it does come out (18 months?). Reason being, is because people are reinfecting in China (supposedly), so no antibodies are being made the first round. So what good would a vaccine do? I am not on any medication, but husband is on tons and tons, and he only has one lung that works.
    Isolating is the best idea. With last years Midwest crop loss, food prices/extra stock is a problem.
    I think Trump is worried about an economy crash more than anything, which would explain his “don’t worry about it, we got this” attitude when it comes to this virus.
    Maybe it is good that people have become so addicted to their “screens”…makes isolation more tolerable?

    #19364
    Profile photo of urbanhunter
    urbanhunter
    Participant

    Yesterday I checked on our “cold and flu season” supplies, and noticed we were short on a few things so I went to pick them up. The Drug Store had the things on my list, but they told me they were sold out of face masks and hand sanitizer. So the run has begun on medical supplies….

    But, if the government needs to close the borders other things may be at risk:
    Colin Khoury, a plant scientist at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (known by its Spanish acronym CIAT) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2016 told The Salt that “the numbers affirm what we have long known — that our entire food system is completely global.”

    Next time you are in the produce section of your grocery store, look at the countries of origin of your food and you will quickly become alarmed…

    Today, The United States imports about 15 percent of its overall food supply from more than 200 countries and roughly 125,000 food facilities and farms. Imports represent approximately 32 percent of the fresh vegetables, 55 percent of the fresh fruit, and 94 percent of the seafood that Americans consume annually.

    I have always tried to grow some of our veggies, and have written about my hot boxes in past posts, this year (January 2020) I started growing things hydroponically and we have already been able to harvest some lettuces. My outdoor hot boxes are currently producing lettuce, spinach, and green onions with snow peas and early peas coming up now. My thinking has always been that growing your own veggies is the only to guarantee against water-born illnesses, but now I believe that avoiding shopping may be a side benefit.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by Profile photo of urbanhunter urbanhunter.
    #19366
    Profile photo of amish heart
    amish heart
    Participant

    Avoiding shopping does have it’s benefits. I have already stockpiled masks, but am sad to hear the hospitals are low. There are none to be found in our area. I still go in the store, but shop the early morning hours. Less people. We have our own greens growing right now, too.

    #19367
    Profile photo of BenRayner
    BenRayner
    Participant

    “Not shopping” has been part of life for a very long time.

    If I do not count that time I had get a bunch of flowers for a dance recital… I have not been in a grocery store possibly for decades. The Princess only visits about once a month or so. Not sure how often she has to get fresh milk I admit.

    For my part I do not want to panic and just accept the conditions and adapt. It is after a flu and once a flu gets into society, (unless we live in a cave and eat mushrooms) it is only a matter of time until we all get it. I am not saying that we should have chicken pox parties for Corona. If we can reduce the initial spread until after a vaccine is available, get some better faster testing available and better understanding of the nature of this beast, we may be able to get to fatality rate down to the levels of the normal flu.

    The major impacts that we can minimize will be economic (see this for a lighter treatment of this threat here).

    How many of us have ever lived through a depression?

    The shutting down of borders and factories could have an impact that tips the world’s delicate balance of commerce and the ripple effects could be long lasting as economies recover.

    For my part, I am going with one of the tee-shirt The Princess favors.

    “Keep calm and carry on”.

    Ben

    #19368
    Profile photo of BenRayner
    BenRayner
    Participant

    This link on LinkedIn gives the impression of speaking with authority but it seems no.

    “What is truth?”

    Ben

    #19369
    Profile photo of urbanhunter
    urbanhunter
    Participant

    Thanks @benraner that is sad….
    I read that the virus (or at least other viruses in the same family) can live for up to 9 days on hard surfaces. But there is good news, it can be killed by cleaning with any of the following:
    Hydrogen peroxide
    Alcohol
    Bleach
    (This is why the Chinese Cleaned public surfaces every 6 after SARS hit HONG KONG, and why you saw street sweepers and foggers spraying the city where the virus originated, limit people movement and disinfect everything else; is the only way to truely stop the spread. Unfortunately, you can only do that combination of things in a totalitarian society where there are no civil liberties. (We would have a major cry fest (The ACLU would go crazy) if the Army set up road blocks around cities with high infection rates).

    The virus is also said to have a shortened life when exposed to temperatures above 85F.

    I saw where a NH medical worker who had been to Italy and was told to “self quarantine” and went to a mixer (I bet he is popular now) before his results came back positive. Ohers he has been in contact with have tested positive…. What a jerk. This is why we need to be ready to “self isolate”, because it is obvious that the S@#T is about the hit the fan.

    #19370
    Profile photo of urbanhunter
    urbanhunter
    Participant

    Here is something that was sent to me in an e-mail. I cannot verify it’s content, but it sounded reasonable:

    These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.: 1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc. 2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove. 3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip – do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors. 4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts. 5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been. 6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home’s entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can’t immediately wash your hands. 7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more! What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US: 1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas. Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average – everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth. 2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you – it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth – it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth. 3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective. 4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY “cold-like” symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

    Like I said, I cannot verify these recommendations, but they sounded reasonable.

    Preppers look crazy when things are fine, they look brilliant when things go south!

    Stay safe,
    Urban

    #19371
    Profile photo of urbanhunter
    urbanhunter
    Participant

    Homemade Hand Sanitizer: (compliments of CBS News)
    Here’s a list of required ingredients to make your own hand sanitizer:

    2/3 cup of rubbing alcohol
    1/3 cup aloe vera gel
    5-10 drops of essential oil (optional)
    Mixing bowl
    Spoon
    Funnel
    Two-ounce spray bottle or liquid soap container
    Masking tape and pen or marker for labeling the container (or adhesive labels)

    Directions: Pour the alcohol and aloe vera in a bowl and stir until blended. Add several drops of essential oil and stir to help mask the smell of alcohol. Use the funnel to pour the eight ounce mixture into containers, then affix the strips of marked masking tape (or adhesive labels) to identify the bottles’ contents.

    #19372
    Profile photo of urbanhunter
    urbanhunter
    Participant

    Today I got to thinking about how thing are likely to shake out and it looks to me like 16 months of interesting times (worst case but that is what I do).

    The good news is I think we have 3 to 6 weeks to tie up loose ends….

    I am making sure I have my garden things in good order (extra seeds?) and verifying that my staple stores are in good shape.

    MRS. UH is most displeased with things being disrupted (graduations and celebrations)… She asked me when this thing will hit it’s peak? Based on the flu (30 deaths per day), I figure that when deaths reach 200 per day, we will have hit the worst part… it should start to wain shortly after that…

    I personally think that the time to start limiting exposure and using self-restraint is here…

    Being a prepper, I think the UH clan is in good shape, but traditional prepper things will be getting very expensive and one may need to consider “alternate” supplies to meet their needs…

    It could be a good time to go over some of the old MSP forums/discussions and review what was being said years ago….

    Urban

    #19373
    Profile photo of amish heart
    amish heart
    Participant

    Yep. Agree with that.
    Glad your family is in good shape. We are, too, but still have the grandkids in public school. End of May can’t come soon enough.

    #19374
    Profile photo of BenRayner
    BenRayner
    Participant

    “…, but still have the grandkids in public school. ”

    Kids seem to not get hit very hard by the virus. Granted that not stop them from being carriers.

    “…The good news is I think we have 3 to 6 weeks to tie up loose ends….”

    If one had made plans ahead of time and just loose ends yup. Both Patriot Supply and Furgason Farms web-site have a disclaimer indicating 2-month delay in filling orders.

    While I am over 60 the virus does not frighten me much. What does is the reprecussions of economic wind down and a potential world-wide depression. Stepping back and thinking about that, the fact that the virus hits older persons harder than the young
    could be God sparing those that are old enough to remember the last depression such that they do not have to live through another one.

    Ben

    #19376
    Profile photo of urbanhunter
    urbanhunter
    Participant

    Well, the bug is in the neighborhood and the UH household has had to develop some plans (just in case). We can’t leave, it wouldn’t be logical with Mrs. UH’s health conditions But, I need to take extra precautions.

    We have a few N-95 masks and hand sanitizer on a table next to the front door, all visitors must use both…. If I feel even a little “funny” it is self-isolate in the basement until we feel comfortable/safe.

    I have some of the washable, reusable masks that I can wear while commuting and when I am in close proximity to Mrs. UH. When I commute, I wear gloves (the smooth black leather kind) on public transportation and walk whenever I can to avoid it all together. When I get to the car/office I spritz my gloves with hand sanitizer, open the door, then remove the gloves and do my hands (it isn’t perfect, but it’s a plan).

    Being long time preppers, we can easily hunker down here for up to 6 months (sorry no spare room for guests), if things got really bad.

    I feel very lucky that most of my kids are in isolated small communities. If you look at the maps, most of the hot-spots are in the cities. I see that they are trying to contain some hot-spots in NYC with the National Guard, good luck with that, in Italy they tried localized containment and they had almost 10% try to get out before they locked down the whole country. When the cities get hot, the rats will try to run to the country….

    Stay safe,

    Urban

    • This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by Profile photo of urbanhunter urbanhunter.
    #19378
    Profile photo of urbanhunter
    urbanhunter
    Participant

    Today I heard an NIH Doctor tell the Congress that we could expect 45% of Americans to get the Coronavirus.

    This got me to thinking, I have heard mortality rates of between 1 and 4% (I used 1.5%). If you then look at the US population 330.5 Million, you can expect 149 million to get sick and 2.2 million to die…..

    I hope it was misstating thing, if only 10% get the bug, the US would “only” have about 495 thousand deaths. Considering the US lost 418 thousand in WW2, this will have a major impact on the world as we know it.

    I think it may be in our best interests to practice social distancing as much as possible; until they can get a vacine through clinical trials….

    Feel free pt panic now.

    Urban

    #19379
    Profile photo of BenRayner
    BenRayner
    Participant

    Re: Hunkering down…

    The Princess has stock piled so many preps… we can hunker down longer than we have left on this earth. But she has prepared to feed a small army after an EMP TEOTWAWKI.

    Re: New Rochelle

    I lived there while I was in the 6th grade. My aunts still live there. My sister checked up on them and they are just outside the quarantine. Seems there is a synagogue that got hit and the neighborhood around it is the center of the ground zero.

    Re: Panic

    Channeling Alfred E. Newman “What me worry?” (smiley-wink)

    I was talking to the neighbor at LLC#1 today about things. He is a retired underwriter and we talked markets and the opportunities that will be coming for investments. I did share my concern with him about The Princess still working at a very large library and the chances of her picking it up. She is still young enough to not be at high risk but not so much for Ben. I told the neighbor that on one hand maybe I should not have retired but on the other hand, if it does take me out, at least I had a chance to enjoy a few months of retirement.

    He replied;

    “Better to retire a year too early than one day too late.”

    The only concern that I see in the future is what may be a depression and the hardship that will come with that… world-wide. The depth of that depression will depend on how many people panic and how soon.

    Now if you are interested, in post #2081 of this thread in a forum used by engineers and scientists, we turned our attention to the virus. That forum has members from around the world and you may be interested in reading what an engineer in Milan Italy has reported about what has happened there.

    Ben

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